đ Read the full analysis: Same Earnings Night, Different Reactions For Microsoft And Alphabet on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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TL;DR
Microsoft shares gained about 4% and Alphabet shares fell about 10% in after-hours trading after both companies reported results on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Alphabet’s Google Cloud grew faster than Azure, but the companiesâ cash-flow positions and earnings results differed: Microsoft reported positive free cash flow and beat forecasts, while Alphabet reported negative free cash flow and missed several analyst estimates.
Microsoft shares rose about 4% and Alphabet shares fell about 10% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the two technology companies reported results and plans for AI infrastructure spending. Alphabetâs Google Cloud grew 103% to $30.7 billion, faster than Microsoft Azureâs 48% growth to $33.2 billion, but investors also weighed Alphabetâs earnings miss and negative free cash flow against Microsoftâs forecast beat and positive cash generation.
Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $92.3 billion, up 19%, and adjusted earnings per share of $4.89. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected $4.73 per share, according to CNBC. Azure growth of 48% beat the 45% rate Microsoft had guided to in July. It was the first time the company disclosed Azure revenue in dollars, putting the quarterâs figure at $33.2 billion.
Alphabetâs Google Cloud revenue reached $30.7 billion, up 103% from a year earlier, while the company missed analyst forecasts for revenue, earnings per share and search advertising, according to the supplied reportâs account of the results. It described this as Alphabetâs first miss on both revenue and profit in nearly four years, citing CNBC. The companiesâ cloud growth rates are not the only factor in their share reactions: Microsoft had $18.6 billion in free cash flow after investments, while Alphabet reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, its second consecutive negative quarter.
Both companies are spending heavily to build computing capacity. Microsoft reported $45.2 billion in capital spending when finance leases are included, and $39.4 billion in cash paid for property and equipment, twice the year-earlier amount. Alphabetâs capital expenditure rose 114% year over year, according to calculations described in the source material. Microsoftâs planned 2026 spending was about $170 billion; Alphabetâs was $195 billion to $205 billion. Neither raised its 2026 plan, while both pointed to higher spending in 2027.
Infographic 01 · The scorecard
Same night, opposite verdicts.
The four numbers from my 28 October preview, scored with both companiesâ own reports for July to September 2026.
The four numbers I said to watch, scored
Status chips: ok = healthy, hold = watch, urgent = warning sign. My assessment.
| Metric | Microsoft | Alphabet |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · Capex guidance | Microsoft hold About $170B for calendar 2026 (July: about $175B), lower only because deliveries slipped. More than $50B next quarter. | Alphabet hold $195â205B for 2026, unchanged. 2027 to âincrease significantlyâ; no number yet. |
| 2 · Cloud growth vs. capex | Microsoft hold Azure +48%. Capex incl. finance leases +30%; cash capex about 2Ă. | Alphabet hold Google Cloud +103%. Capex +114% to $51.4B. |
| 3 · Free cash flow + funding | Microsoft ok +$18.6B (â27%). No new bonds. $10.2B returned to shareholders. | Alphabet urgent â$9.1B. $28.7B bonds and $12.4B new shares in the quarter. No buybacks. |
| 4 · Capacity | Microsoft hold âDemand continues to exceed available supply.â Delayed GPU capacity moves to the first half of 2027. | Alphabet hold âSupply constrained.â Renting third-party capacity; margin pressure ahead. |
Microsoft
â +4%After-hours, 28 Oct (CNBC; Reuters: more than 5%)
- Beat on revenue ($92.3B, +19%) and earnings per share ($4.89 adjusted vs. $4.73 expected)
- Azure guide 49â50% for the current quarter
- Self-funded build-out
Alphabet
â â10%After-hours, 28 Oct (CNBC, Reuters)
- Missed on revenue ($127.6B vs. $128.2B expected) and earnings ($2.67 adjusted vs. $3.02)
- Search +12%, below forecasts; AI Mode earns less per query so far
- Build-out now partly financed with bonds and new shares
Sources: Microsoft FY27 Q1 release and call, 28 Oct 2026; Alphabet Q3 2026 release (8-K), 28 Oct 2026; Alphabet Q3 call, third-party transcript; CNBC on Microsoft, 28 Oct; CNBC on Alphabet, 28 Oct; Reuters, 28 Oct. Analyst expectations as reported by CNBC and Reuters (LSEG, StreetAccount). Capex growth for Alphabet and Microsoftâs cash capex: my arithmetic from the cash flow statements. Status chips: Thorsten Meyer.
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Cash Flow Separates the Cloud Giants
The results show why a faster-growing cloud business does not automatically produce the stronger market reaction. Growth and its funding are separate questions: investors were weighing whether the companies can expand AI infrastructure while continuing to generate cash, as well as what their spending commitments may mean for future financing.
Microsoftâs $18.6 billion in free cash flow gave it a different near-term financial position from Alphabet, which reported a $9.1 billion cash outflow. The supplied source says Alphabet raised $28.7 billion in bonds and $12.4 billion by issuing shares during the quarter, and did not buy back shares. Those details do not prove that Alphabetâs spending will fail to pay off; they help explain the funding risk investors may be considering.
Both companies also face limits on how quickly they can turn demand into sales. Microsoftâs commercial remaining performance obligations rose 73% to $677 billion, while Google Cloud commitments stood at $561 billion. Those commitments are contracted future revenue, not cash already received. The source says only about 30% of Microsoftâs figure is expected to become revenue within 12 months, with an average duration of 2.3 years.
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AI Demand Meets Capacity Limits
The companiesâ earnings calls pointed to a shared constraint: AI computing capacity remains limited. Microsoft finance chief Amy Hood said some third-party capacity deliveries expected in the quarter were delayed. The source says those delays pushed some planned spending into later periods, with Hood expecting capital expenditure above $50 billion in the current quarter and an acceleration in the first half of 2027.
Alphabet also faces supply constraints and has started renting capacity from third parties, according to the source. Both companies say demand exceeds available supply. That distinction matters when reading large backlogs: customers may have committed to future cloud services, but delivery depends on available data-center capacity, and the commitments do not represent immediate revenue or cash.
The spending figures require care because the companies report them in different ways. Microsoftâs $45.2 billion figure includes finance leases, while its $39.4 billion cash-capex figure counts cash paid for property and equipment. The source attributes the year-over-year capex comparisons to cash-flow-statement calculations, except for Microsoftâs 30% figure, which it says CNBC reported. These measures should not be treated as identical accounting categories.
Spending Plans and Returns Still Developing
The after-hours share moves capture investorsâ first reaction, not a settled judgment about the companiesâ long-term AI businesses. The supplied material does not give a full account of subsequent trading, and it does not establish why each investor bought or sold. The cash-flow contrast and Alphabetâs forecast miss are factors, not proof of a single market-wide explanation.
It also remains unclear how quickly either company can ease supply constraints, bring delayed equipment online or convert contracted commitments into recognized revenue. Microsoftâs delayed GPU deliveries are expected to slip into the first half of 2027, according to the source, while Alphabet is renting outside capacity. The pace and cost of those arrangements are not specified.
Future returns on the infrastructure build-out are also uncertain. The supplied results show large investment plans and strong cloud growth, but they do not establish how much of that spending will generate incremental profit, or when. Alphabetâs negative free cash flow and reported bond and share issuance describe its quarter; they do not by themselves determine its future financing needs.
Watch the Next Spending Updates
Investors will be watching upcoming earnings updates for signs that the companiesâ capacity investments are translating into revenue and cash generation. For Microsoft, Hoodâs comments point to capital expenditure above $50 billion in the current quarter, followed by faster spending in the first half of 2027. The source also says delayed GPU deliveries are expected to move into that period.
For Alphabet, the next results should show whether Google Cloud can sustain its rapid growth while the company funds its infrastructure plans and manages its cash position. The source gives an unchanged 2026 capital-spending range of $195 billion to $205 billion and says Alphabet expects a substantial increase in 2027, but does not provide a more specific 2027 figure.
Cloud growth, spending, free cash flow and capacity availability will remain useful points of comparison. The results will also show whether the gap between contracted customer commitments and recognized revenue is narrowing. Until then, the companiesâ large backlogs should be read as future obligations and opportunities, not as revenue already delivered.
Key Questions
The supplied source points to Microsoftâs earnings and Azure forecast beat, alongside positive free cash flow, and Alphabetâs analyst-forecast misses and negative free cash flow. These are factors that may help explain the different after-hours reactions; they do not prove the reason for every investorâs decision.
Did Google Cloud grow faster than Azure?
Yes. Google Cloud revenue grew 103% to $30.7 billion, while Azure revenue rose 48% to $33.2 billion. The source says this was the first quarter for which Microsoft showed Azure revenue in dollars.
How did the companiesâ free cash flow compare?
Microsoft reported $18.6 billion in free cash flow after investments. Alphabet reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, its second negative quarter in a row, according to the source material.
Are the companiesâ cloud backlogs the same as revenue?
No. Microsoftâs $677 billion commercial remaining performance obligation and Google Cloudâs $561 billion in customer commitments refer to contracted future business. They are not cash received or revenue already recognized, and the timing of delivery and recognition varies.
What happens to AI spending next?
Microsoft expects capital expenditure above $50 billion in the current quarter and faster spending in the first half of 2027, according to the source. Alphabetâs 2026 plan remains $195 billion to $205 billion, with a larger increase anticipated in 2027; a precise figure was not provided.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
