TL;DR
A recent study shows that the abrupt shutdown of USAID in 2025 by DOGE caused a sharp rise in violent conflicts across Africa. The aid cuts are linked to increased violence, deaths, and regional instability, raising concerns about long-term consequences.
A new study confirms that the 2025 shutdown of USAID by DOGE led to a significant increase in violent conflicts across Africa, with nearly one thousand subnational units experiencing heightened violence. This development underscores the broader humanitarian and security repercussions of the aid agency’s abrupt closure.
The study, published by researchers including Austin L. Wright of the University of Chicago, analyzed geolocated aid and conflict data to assess the impact of the aid cuts. It found that in regions heavily reliant on USAID, the probability of conflict events increased by approximately 6.5%, with notable rises in protests, riots, battles, and fatalities. The data suggest that the aid collapse directly contributed to these spikes, with effects persisting over months. Between 2021 and 2024, USAID is estimated to have saved 91 million lives, including many children, highlighting the scale of its impact. The rapid shutdown disrupted ongoing development programs, creating a shock to local economies and increasing incentives for violence, crime, and unrest.
Why It Matters
This matters because the loss of USAID’s aid has led to a surge in violence, risking further humanitarian crises and regional instability. The increase in conflict not only endangers lives but also undermines U.S. influence and security, as aid has historically served as a tool for soft power and early warning on health and security threats. The study indicates that the abrupt aid withdrawal may have long-lasting effects, complicating efforts to restore stability and aid effectiveness in Africa.
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Background
U.S. aid through USAID has historically played a key role in development and conflict mitigation in Africa since its creation in 1961. Under the Trump administration, the agency was rapidly dismantled starting in early 2025, with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency overseeing the process. The aid cuts followed a broader pattern of U.S. policy shifts, but the scale and speed of the shutdown are unprecedented. Previous research shows aid can reduce conflict if managed carefully, but it can also exacerbate tensions if mishandled. The recent study provides the first clear evidence linking the aid withdrawal directly to increased violence across multiple African regions.
“With the USAID shutdown, there was a rapid increase in the likelihood, severity, and lethality of violence across nearly one thousand subnational units in Africa.”
— Austin L. Wright, University of Chicago
“When those funds rapidly go away, it’s a shock to the opportunity cost, making violence and crime more attractive. The shutdown was so quick that it didn’t allow for the typical conflict dynamics to fully develop, but the effects are now evident.”
— Wright
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What Remains Unclear
It is still unclear how long the conflict increases will persist or whether aid reactivation could reverse these trends. The long-term security and humanitarian impacts remain to be fully assessed, and the full scope of political and social repercussions is still emerging.
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What’s Next
Researchers and policymakers are expected to monitor conflict trends in affected regions over the coming months. Discussions around aid restoration, international responses, and security measures are likely to intensify. Further studies will aim to quantify long-term impacts and develop strategies to mitigate ongoing instability.
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Key Questions
How exactly did the aid cuts lead to increased violence?
The study suggests that the sudden withdrawal of aid disrupted local economies and development projects, increasing incentives for violence, crime, and unrest as communities and groups competed over remaining resources and opportunities.
Which regions in Africa were most affected by the aid shutdown?
Regions that received the most aid from USAID experienced the largest increases in conflict, particularly areas with weaker governance and less control over local populations, as indicated by the geolocated aid and conflict data.
Could aid reactivation reverse the conflict trends?
It is uncertain whether restoring aid would quickly reduce violence, as the current conflicts may have entered self-perpetuating cycles. Long-term stabilization efforts would likely be necessary.
What are the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy?
The findings highlight the risks of abrupt aid withdrawal, which can undermine regional stability and U.S. influence, emphasizing the need for carefully managed aid programs to avoid unintended consequences.
